September 01, 2017, Florian Morath, Ph.D. - Escalation in dynamic conflict: On beliefs and selection
Abstract: We study a dynamic multi-stage contest that resolves in each stage only with a given probability. Assuming that there is unobservable heterogeneity in intrinsic motivations we derive properties of the equilibrium efforts across the different stages. Whereas in the corresponding complete information benchmark equilibrium efforts are stable across the stages, uncertainty about the type distribution of possible opponents generates learning. We identify reasons for dynamic adjustments of efforts caused by belief formation and updating and by selection of certain types into continuing conflict. A corresponding experimental setup provides evidence for escalation of efforts in later stages, for type heterogeneity, for belief formation and belief updating, and for self-selection. Overall, our results suggest the importance of an appropriate benchmark model when testing predictions on behavior in conflict or related strategic interactions.
Bio: Florian Morath is a Professor of Economics at Goethe University Frankfurt. He received his Ph.D. from Free University of Berlin and was a research fellow at Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance, Munich before moving to the University of Frankfurt in 2016. His research focuses on questions in the fields of Applied Microeconomics, Public Economics and Political Economy and currently includes projects on the economics of conflict, taxation and redistribution, and internet markets. Prof. Morath’s research has been published in leading academic journals such as Management Science, Games and Economic Behavior, the International Economic Review, and the European Economic Review.
September 15, 2017, Ted Bergstrom, Ph.D. - When Was Coase Right?
Abstract: The “Coase theorem" asserts that in the absence of transaction costs, parties to an externality will bargain to an efficient outcome. It also claims that the resulting level of externality-generating is independent of initial assignment of rights. It is well-known that Coase's second claim is true if utility is quasi-linear so that the valuation of externalities does not depend on wealth. This paper finds a class of preferences for which Coase's second claim is true when there are wealth effects. It presents a necessary and sufficient condition for Coase's second claim and discusses applications of this result.
Bio: I was born and raised on a Minnesota farm, about 25 miles north of Lake Woebegone. Went to Carleton College in Northfield Minn, majored in math. (1957-1962), My math teacher at Carleton said there was such a thing as mathematical economics and that Arrow at Stanford would be a good person to study with. So I did that. (1962-1966). My first job was at Washington U St. Louis (1966-74), then University of Michigan, (1975-96), now at UC Santa Barbara (1996-).
September 29, 2017, Antonio Espín, Ph.D. - Economic preferences 2.0: Connecting competition, cooperation and inter-temporal preferences
Abstract: This paper presents a “second generation” theory on the nature of social preferences. Incorporating an inter-temporal ingredient, we generate an outcome-based model which focuses on the conflict between cooperation towards social efficiency and competition for the individual relative standing. We build on the argument that cooperative (competitive) patterns are more likely to arise when the future is perceived as secure and predictable (unsecure and unpredictable). In order to accommodate this argument with recent experimental results showing a relationship between individuals’ inter-temporal preferences and social behavior in one-shot games, social efficiency is assumed to trigger long-run satisfaction whereas relative standing is linked to short-run satisfaction. In so doing, we add a dynamic component to social preferences. This feature of the model implies that more patient individuals are more willing to get involved in cooperative affairs while more impatient individuals are more likely to display competitive patterns. Yet, an individual’s inter-temporal preferences interact with contextual factors (cues of future (un)predictability) to determine her course of action. The theory is then tested to shed new light on individuals’ decisions in different games used in experimental research where a relationship between game play and inter-temporal preferences has been found. We show that our new combination of social and inter-temporal preferences adds well to the explanatory power of economic theory on human decision making.
Bio: Antonio M. Espín is a research fellow at Middlesex University London (Economics Department). He holds a PhD from the University of Granada, Spain. His main research interests are focused on the psychological and biological underpinnings of human social behavior. Dr. Espín has published in outstanding academic journals such as Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Journal of Happiness Studies, Economics Letters and Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience. He is board member of the Society for the Advancement of Judgment and Decision-making Studies (SEJyD) and Associate Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy.
October 20, 2017, Sebastien Pouget, Ph.D. - Asset Pricing in Old Regime France: A test of the consumption-based theory
Abstract: This paper proposes a test of consumption-based asset pricing theory. We focus on two ancient shareholding corporations, the Bazacle and the Castel milling companies, as an experimental testbed. We collected the companies’ dividends and share prices from 1591 to 1788. We also collected the total quantity of grain milled in Toulouse as a proxy for investors’ consumption. We derive the main prediction of the consumption-based asset pricing theory, indicating that the price of an asset should equal the expected value of the future cash flow discounted using a stochastic discount factor (SDF). We test this main prediction by using the methodology proposed by Almeida and Garcia (2012) and Ghosh, Julliard, and Taylor (2016). We observe that the model-free SDF correlates with the model-implied one and with our measure of consumption. Moreover, a CRRA-based model is not rejected by the data for low risk aversion levels.
Bio: Sébastien Pouget is a Professor of Finance at the University of Toulouse and a member of the Toulouse School of Economics. He has taught asset management, corporate finance and behavioral finance at various institutions including New York University, Princeton University and Georgia State University. Prof. Pouget’s research studies financial markets’ inefficiencies by relying on insights and methods from economics, management, psychology, and history. Prof. Pouget’s research has been published in top international academic journals including Econometrica, the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial Economics, the Review of Financial Studies, and the Review of Economic Studies.
November 10, 2017, Hyunseok Lee, Ph.D. - Understanding and Managing Customer-Induced Negative Externalities in Congested Self-Service Environments
Abstract: Managing congestion in self-service environments such as fitting rooms in apparel retailers is vital as retailers increasingly rely on their customers to perform many tasks independently. In this paper, we demonstrate the presence of thwarting behavior, defined as a systematic change in customers’ behavior during congestion that imposes negative externalities on other customers, among retail customers. Using point-of-sale (POS), traffic, and labor data obtained from a retail technology platform firm, RetailNext, and one of its clients, we demonstrate an inverted-U relationship between fitting room traffic and sales that is consistent with the presence of thwarting behavior. To provide the direct evidence for thwarting behavior, we conduct a field study observing customer behavior at another retailer. Our field study provides evidence that customers indeed change their behavior during congestion that lead to increased waiting time and phantom stockouts. Finally, we run a field experiment to show that these phantom stockouts cause significant lost sales in retail stores. We quantify that mitigating phantom stockouts in the fitting room area using an associate increases checkout-counter-level hourly sales by 22.6%.
Bio: Dr. Hyun Seok (Huck) Lee is an Assistant Professor of Supply Chain and Operations Management in the College of Business at Oregon State University. He conducts research on supply chain management for retailers. Dr. Lee is the recipient of research awards including Rising OM Scholar Award (2016) and M. Wayne DeLozier Award (2016) from Kenan-Flagler Business School. He received his doctorate in Operations from University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Kenan-Flagler Business School. He also has master’s degree in Logistics, Service and Operations Management and bachelor degree in Business Administration from Korea University Business School.
November 17, 2017, Jim Marrone, Ph.D. - Linguistic and Cultural Assimilation as a Human Capital Process
Abstract: I develop a learning-by-doing theory of cultural assimilation, in which an individual's cultural identity is determined by past investments in culture-specific social capital. The model incorporates several empirically relevant aspects of assimilation that have been difficult to explain in past models. The mechanism in my model yields two possible qualitative outcomes of the assimilation process, depending on the intertemporal complementarities of investment. The first, in which individuals become more homogeneous over time, has been used to explain immigrants' wage assimilation. The second, in which individuals become more heterogeneous as some assimilate and some do not, has vastly different implications for immigration and integration policies. Using detailed datasets from three immigrant destination countries, I provide a variety of evidence from linguistic, identity, and religiosity measures that cultural assimilation (in contrast to economic assimilation) most closely resembles the second type of process.
Bio: Jim Marrone is an economist at RAND Corporation in Washington, DC. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago in 2017. His two research agendas focus on modeling and measuring cultural assimilation, and on measuring the size and scope of the black market for antiquities. In addition, Jim has designed and taught undergraduate courses in time series econometrics (for economics majors) and game theory (for humanities majors). In his free time he does improv and has developed/led a seminar using improv skills to help academics and researchers better communicate their work to non-specialists.
May 12, 2017, Ron Harstad, Ph.D. - Designing Experimental Inference from Revealed Preference
Apr. 28, 2017, Thor Koeppl, Ph.D. - The Economics of Cryptocurrency- Bitcoin and Beyond
Apr. 21, 2017, Charles Sprenger, Ph.D. - Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing
Apr. 14, 2017, Piotr Evdokimov, Ph.D. - Myopic Loss Aversion or Randomness in Choice? An Experimental Investigation - Watch lecture
Apr. 7, 2017, Andrew Smyth, Ph.D. - Contests under the shadow of the future - Watch lecture
Mar. 31, 2017, Ross Starr, Ph.D. - Responding to Martin Hellwig’s Presidential Address: Smith, Knapp, Menger, Hicks, and Tobin Deal with the Hahn Problem - Watch lecture
Mar. 10, 2017, Rod Garratt, Ph.D. - Let Me, or Let George? Motives of Competing Altruists - Watch lecture
Mar. 03, 2017, John Patton, Ph.D. - Culture Does Not Account for Variation in Ultimatum Game Behavior in the Conambo River Valley
Feb. 10, 2017, Charles Calomiris, Ph.D. - How News and Its Context Drive Risk and Returns Around the World - Watch lecture
Nov. 4, 2016, Hong Qu, Ph.D. - How Do Public Forecasts Affect Price Efficiency and Welfare Allocations? The Role of Exogenous Disclosure and Endogenous Prices in Empowering Uniformed Traders - Watch lecture
May 6, 2016 - Luis Carlos Corchon, Ph.D. - Relinquishing Power, Exploitation and Political Unemployment in Democratic Organizations - Watch lecture
Apr. 22, 2016, Alistair Wilson, Ph.D. - Information Transmission and the Shadow of the Future: An Experiment on Reputation, Rents and Deception - Watch lecture
Mar. 18, 2016, Matt McCarter, Ph.D. - It’s a Trap! Theory Triangulation of Self-Restraint and Population Growth in the 18th Century Swedish Commons
Feb. 26, 2016, Katya Sherstyuk, Ph.D. - Bidding with money or action plans? Asset allocation under strategic uncertainty
Feb. 19, 2016, Peter Kuhn, Ph.D. - When and How are People ‘Behavioral’? Evidence from Intertemporal Choices
Sept. 25, 2015, Adam Sanjurjo, Ph.D. - Surprised by the Gambler´s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers - Watch lecture
Mar. 20, 2015, John Horton, Ph.D. - Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment
May 12, 2014, Don Ross, Ph.D - Psychological versus economic models of bounded rationality - Watch lecture
Feb. 21, 2014, David Leinweber, Ph.D. - Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines, & Wired Markets - Watch lecture
Dec. 06, 2013, Jack Stecher, Ph.D. -Description and Experience Based Decision Making: An Experimental and Structural Estimation Approach to the Decision-Experience Gap
Feb. 22, 2013 Jordi Brandts Bernad, Ph.D. - Let’s talk: How communication affects contract design.
Dec. 7, 2012 Quazi Shahriar, Ph.D. - When Does Cheap-Talk (Fail to) Increase Efficient Coordination? - Watch lecture
Nov. 9, 2012 Uri Gneezy, Ph.D. - Incentives and Behavior Change
Sept. 28, 2012 Charles Thomas, Ph.D. - An Alternating-Offers Model of Multilateral Negotiations - Watch lecture
Aug. 31, 2012 Yan Chen, Ph.D. - Crowdsourcing with All-pay Auctions: a Field Experiment on Taskcn - Watch lecture
Apr. 20, 2012 Shawn Kantor, Ph.D. - Do Research Universities Generate Local Economic Growth? - Watch lecture
Mar. 23, 2012 Max Krasnow, Ph.D. - Evolution of direct reciprocity under uncertainty can explain human generosity in one-shot encounters. Watch lecture
Feb. 24, 2012 John Tooby, Ph.D. - The Welfare Tradeoff Architecture, Cooperation, and Social Emotions - For further reading please see: Formidability and the logic of human anger and The architecture of human kin detection. - Watch lecture
Feb. 3, 2012 Alexandra Rosati - Evolutionary economics: Mapping decision-making traits in chimpanzees, bonobos, and humans - Watch Lecture
Nov. 11, 2011 Mark M. Bykowsky, Ph.D. - A Market-based Approach to Establishing Licensing Rules: Licensed Versus Unlicensed Use of Spectrum Federal Communications Commission - please watch this video before lecture - Watch lecture
Oct. 21, 2011 Parker Ballinger, Ph.D. - Individual versus Social Learning: The Importance of Demonstrability - Watch lecture
Apr. 8, 2011 Kevin McCabe, Ph.D. – Experiments on the role of third parties on redistribution decisions. For further reading please see: Shared Experience and Third-Party Decisions: A Laboratory Result, Legitimacy in the lab – The separate and joint effects of earned roles and earned endowments in third-party redistribution, Whose money is it anyway? Ingroups and distributive behavior. - Watch lecture
Apr. 1, 2011 Michael Gurven, Ph.D. - Experimental investigation of fairness and altruism norms in small-scale societies - Further reading: Culture sometimes matters: Intra-cultural variation in pro-social behavior among Tsimane Amerindians and Collective Action in Action: Prosocial Behavior in and out of the Laboratory - Watch lecture
Feb. 18, 2011 Catherine Eckel, Ph.D. - Giving to Government: Voluntary Taxation in the Lab - Watch lecture
Feb. 11, 2011 Jim Engle-Warnick, Ph.D. - Social Learning and Risk and Ambiguity Preferences - Watch lecture
Feb. 4, 2011 Peter Boettke, Ph.D. - Polycentrism and Gargantua: Which Model Best Provides Public Education? - Watch lecture
Oct. 5, 2010 Andreas Wilke, Ph.D. - Past and Present Environments: The Evolution of Decision Making
May 7, 2010 Jim Gentle, Ph.D. - The Contribution of Jumps to the Volatility of Asset Prices - Watch lecture
Apr. 9, 2010 Gregory Waymire, Ph.D. - Can Trust Be Sustained in an Uncertain World When Individuals Have Machiavellian Intelligence? - Watch lecture
Feb. 5, 2010 Kevin McCabe, Ph.D. - Watch lecture
Dec. 2, 2009 Jeffrey Tollaksen, Ph.D. - New Ideas About the Nature of Time - Watch lecture
Nov. 13, 2009 Sarah F. Brosnan, Ph.D. - An Evolutionary Perspective on the Perception and Utilization of Property . Watch lecture
Oct. 9, 2009 Monica Smith, Ph.D. - A cognitive History of Material Objects: The Archaeology of Possession, Inheritance, and Value . Watch lecture
Sept. 18, 2009 Thomas W. Hazlett, Ph.D. – Tragedy TV: Rights Fragmentation and the Junk Band Problem . Watch lecture
May 20, 2009 Gerd Gigerenzer Ph.D. - Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences. Watch lecture
Mar. 20, 2009 John Ledyard Ph.D. – Individual Evolutionary Learning, Other-regarding Preferences, and the Voluntary Contributions Mechanism. Watch lecture
Nov. 7, 2008 Larry Iannaccone Ph.D. - Looking Backward: A Cross-National Study of Religious Trends. Watch lecture
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