» Workshop on "Future Earthquakes in Southern California and Preparedness"

November 2, 2018

Argyros Forum, Room 209 A & B - map

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive and deadliest natural disasters. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. However, seismic risk of any region is well known depending upon the past earthquakes and from the existing geology Faults can be very small or hundreds of miles long. Currently, efforts are being made to develop warning signals based on P and S waves.

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Speakers

photo of Ross Stein, Ph.D.
Ross Stein, Ph.D.
CEO Temblor, Inc.
Speaker Topic: QuakeCaster and Fishnet Stocking Stress, demonstration tools he developed with students, to probe the fundamental riddle of earthquakes: Why quakes are sporadic when their driving forces are steady

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The demo also shows how earthquakes converse by the transfer of static and dynamic stress, an insight that helps crack the difficult problem of earthquake forecasting. He will use these tools to explore the earthquake threat to southern California. Ross will then delve into the strange world of earthquake triggering and inhibition. He will argue that rarely, megaquakes can engulf the entire globe in large aftershocks for days to a week.

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Ross Stein, CEO Temblor, Inc. studies how earthquakes interact by the transfer of stress. He is President-Elect of the Tectonophysics section of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), received the 2012 Gilbert F. White Natural Hazards Award of the AGU, and has delivered AGU’s Francis Birch Lecture, Gilbert White Lecture, and its Frontiers of Geophysics Lecture. He gave a 2012 TEDx talk, ‘Defeating Earthquakes,’ and was keynote speaker at the Smithsonian for the Presidential Awards for Excellence in Mathematics and Science Teaching. He was Winter 2014 Distinguished Lecturer of the Stanford School of Earth Sciences, and is a speaker in the 2015-2016 MPSF Speaker Series, the largest community speaker series in the U.S., with 9,000 subscribers.

Ross Stein received an Sc.B. from Brown University magna cum laude and with honors, and a Ph.D. from Stanford University. He is a Fellow of the AGU and the Geological Society of America, was Editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research in 1986-89, and later chaired AGU’s Board of Journal Editors. In 2003, the Science Citation Index reported that Stein was the second most-cited author in earthquake science during the preceding decade; he was the 10th most cited during 1900-2010.

Stein received the Eugene M. Shoemaker Distinguished Achievement Award of the USGS, the Excellence in Outreach Award of the Southern California Earthquake Center, and the Outstanding Contributions and Cooperation in Geoscience Award from NOAA. He has carried out research for NASA, FEMA, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Swiss Re and Zurich Insurance Group. In 2009 Stein cofounded the Global Earthquake Model (GEM Foundation), a public-private partnership building the first seismic risk model for the world, and chaired GEM’s Science Board for 5 years. At Stanford, Stein teaches ‘Scientific Presentation and Public Speaking’ to Ph.D. students in the earth sciences.

Ross Stein has appeared in many documentary films, including the Emmy-nominated documentary, ‘Killer Quake’ (NOVA, 1995), the four-part ‘Great Quakes’ series (Discovery, 1997-2001), and the multiple award-winning 2004 National Geographic IMAX movie ‘Forces of Nature,’ which he helped to write and animate.

photo of Susan Hough, Ph.D.
Susan Hough, Ph.D.
U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California
Speaker Topic: Future earthquakes and how to prepare, including example earthquake cases from Nepal, Haiti and other countries

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Former Scientist in Charge of the US Geological Survey Office in Pasadena, 2006-2009. Since 2009 she has led the USGS earthquake response effort in Haiti following the 2010 earthquake and continues to work with Haitian colleagues to establish permanent seismic monitoring in the country. She also leads the USGS earthquake risk reduction program in Myanmar. She has served as Editor in Chief of Seismological Research Letters, has co-authored over 100 articles in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, and has written five books on earthquake science for nonspecialist audiences. The most recent book, Predicting the Unpredictable, is a first-ever broad overview of the history and current status of earthquake prediction research. She received her A.B. degree in geophysics with honors from the University of California at Berkeley in 1982, and her Ph.D. in Earth Sciences from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, U.C. San Diego, in 1987. She spent four years at Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory in New York and joined the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena in 1992. Her research interests include ground motions, remotely triggered earthquakes, historical earthquakes, and seismic hazard in South Asia, the Middle East, and the Caribbean. She was elected Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2009.

La Habra Earthquake – Susan Hough

http://www.chicagotribune.com/79777146-157.html

photo of Tony  Song, Ph.D.
Tony Song, Ph.D.
Research Scientist in Oceanography
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Speaker Topic: Early warning of Tsunami and danger in the southern California from tsunami

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Tony Song is a research scientist in Oceanography at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., where he specializes in ocean modeling, satellite remote sensing, and tsunami early detection system using GPS technology. He received his doctorate degree from Simon Fraser University of British Columbia in Canada in 1990, and had been a post-doctorial fellow and an assistant research professor at the Rutgers University of New Jersey. He has been a lead investigator on many NASA and U.S. Navy projects and has authored more than 60 peer reviewed publications. His recent study on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami won the 2008 JPL Ed Stone Award. His invention of using GPS to detect tsunami scales was ranked by Discover Magazine as one of the top 100 amazing discoveries of the year 2010. He is the recipient of the 2011 NASA Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for his pioneering work in tsunami research. He has been a science team member on three of NASA’s Earth satellite missions: the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the Aquarius/SAC-D mission for Ocean Surface Salinity. His public service won the 2014 AGU editor’s citation for Excellence in Refereeing (JGR-Oceans)
photo of Karl W. Seckel, P.E.
Karl W. Seckel, P.E.
Assistant Manager/District Engineer
Municipal Water District of Orange County (MWDOC)
Speaker Topic: Orange County’s Planning Efforts for When the Large Earthquake Strikes

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Municipal Water District of Orange County (MWDOC) is a wholesale water agency providing imported water and other services to 28 agencies in Orange County. Reliability planning has been a cornerstone of our efforts, both to deal with droughts and emergency events. Karl has worked with the various agencies under the umbrella of the“Orange County Water Reliability Study” efforts to help key decision makers consider projects regarding the future of Orange County’s water supplies. “Being Reliable” refers to having sufficient water to avoid shortages whether from droughts, earthquakes or other emergencies. It means having enough water to meet demands and protecting our economy and way of life. Southern California’s water reliability is tied to the success of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California’s (MET) Integrated Water Resources Plan (IRP) and the plans they have for providing drought and emergency supplies.

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Karl W. Seckel, P.E. is Assistant General Manager of the Municipal Water District of Orange County, responsible for planning, engineering, emergency preparedness management and special studies to improve and enhance water reliability for the 2.3 million residents the District serves through its 28 member agencies. MWDOC is the third largest of Metropolitan Water District of Southern California’s member agencies. Karl joined MWDOC in 1983 and has evidently enjoyed working there. Currently, one of Karl's projects is the Orange County Water Reliability Study, an effort that was originally published in 2016 and is being updated in 2018. The study evaluates Orange County’s current and future water demands and supplies under several Scenarios and “tests” portfolios of projects for improving the reliability of supplies for the future. The study effort is also taking into account potential actions by Metropolitan Water District of Southern California regarding potential future projects, including water use efficiency efforts. Prior to joining the Municipal Water District, Karl worked for a civil engineering and water resources consulting firm. He is a graduate of the University of Maryland.

photo of Kelly Hubbard
Kelly Hubbard
Emergency Services Manager
Water Emergency Response Organization of Orange County
Municipal Water District of Orange County
Speaker Topic: Water Utility Resilience through Emergency Planning & Preparedness

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Water Utilities in Orange County and throughout California participate in emergency planning and preparedness activities that enhance their readiness to respond to a major earthquake or disaster of any kind. Measures such as identifying risks, planning and resource gaps, filling those gaps, training and participating in mock emergency responses all enhance the resiliency of our water systems. Kelly will provide some insight on key programs and efforts occurring locally and statewide, as well as what to still expect when the big one hits.
photo of Binod Tiwari, Ph.D., P.E
Binod Tiwari, Ph.D., P.E
Professor
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department
California State University, Fullerton
Speaker Topic: Landslides/mudslides dangers associated with future earthquakes

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Binod Tiwari is a professor of civil engineering and coordinator of graduate program in environmental engineering at California State University, Fullerton. He earned his Ph.D. from Niigata University, Japan in 2003 and post-doctoral studies at Virginia Tech before joining his current institution in 2006 as an assistant professor of civil engineering. His research interest includes laboratory soil characterization, physical modeling, geotechnical earthquake engineering, slope stability and stabilization, sustainability in engineering, natural hazard mitigation, and light weight cellular concrete. He has co-authored close to 300 articles in peer reviewed journals, conference proceedings and research reports pertinent to areas of his research interest. He has supervised over 200 graduate and undergraduate students on their thesis/projects. His research projects were funded by various sources including the US National Science Foundation and those funding totaled over 1.6M. He is an executive editor of Landslides, an associate editor of the Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, an associate editor in chief of Geo-environmental Disasters, and editor of three more international journals. He is a Vice President of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) and Managing Director of the International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction. He is the Geo-challenge Director of the ASCE Geo-institute and is the past chair of ASCE Geo-institute Los Angeles Chapter. He has received over 30 regional, national and international awards for his contribution to professional societies pertinent to civil engineering, disaster management, and engineering education. He has delivered over 30 key-note and invited lectures as well as short-courses on various aspects of his research interests and current studies. He is a licensed professional engineer in California and is actively involved in geotechnical engineering consulting projects throughout USA and internationally.

photo of Jeff Ellis, PE, SE,
Jeff Ellis, PE, SE,
Director of Codes & Compliance
Simpson Strong-Tie Company, Inc.
Speaker Topic: Community Safety and Resilience Against Earthquakes

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Californian’s have longed lived in a beautiful yet dangerous region of the U.S. with our weather and landscape alongside natural hazards such as earthquakes. Some might believe that there is not much that can be done to prepare for a big earthquake, but that is not true. There are many steps one might take to prepare their household, business, and community from catastrophic loss. This presentation will discuss our regions seismic risk, building types vulnerable to collapse in an earthquake, and strategies to reduce risk for building owners and communities. Knowledge is key to limiting losses and decreasing recovery time to adequate protecting your loved ones, livelihood and community.

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Jeff Ellis, PE, SE, SECB, is the Director of Codes & Compliance for Simpson Strong-Tie Company Inc. He has more than 26 years of construction industry experience and manages the company codes and compliance efforts. Additionally, he is involved in research and development and provides technical support for connectors, fastening systems, and lateral force resisting systems. He was a practicing design engineer for commercial, residential and forensic projects for more than 9 years prior to joining Simpson Strong-Tie in 2000. He currently serves as Immediate Past President for the Structural Engineers Association of Southern California (SEAOSC), as the SEAOC Secretary, a California Building Officials (CALBO) Structural Safety Committee member, and as a Manager on the International Code Council Evaluation Service (ICC-ES) Board of Managers. He served as chairman of the AISI Committee on Framing Standards (COFS) Lateral Design Subcommittee for several years and as President of the Cold-Formed Steel Engineers Institute (CFSEI).

photo of Eldon Gath
Eldon Gath
President
Earth Consultants International
Speaker Topic: The Santa Ana Mountains: Indenter Tectonics and the Earthquake Hazards of “The OC”

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LA County Land Development Technical Advisory Committee for a decade, served on the California Board for Engineering, Land Surveyors and Geologists’ Technical Advisory Committee for two years, and has participated multiple times as an Occupational Expert for the US Department of Labor. Eldon is a frequently invited speaker to local southern California colleges. Since his first professional presentation on the Whittier fault at AGU in 1987, he has given over one hundred presentations before professional, academic, and public groups, and has published dozens of papers on a wide range of geological and professional practice topics, several of which have received awards for outstanding presentations and papers. In 1995 he was awarded the Aki Award for Outstanding Paper Presentation at the California Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting for Active tectonic structures in the eastern Los Angeles basin, then in 2007 received the Outstanding Presentation Award at the AAPG Annual Meeting for Quaternary geomorphic development and seismic hazards of Orange County, California. Along with coauthors, he has received the 2010 GSA E.B. Burwell Outstanding Paper Award for The Geology of Los Angeles, and the 2012 AEG Claire P. Holdredge Outstanding Paper Award for Paleoseismology of the Pedro Miguel fault, Panama Canal. He served as South Coast Geological Society (SCGS) President in 1987, AEG Southern California Section Chair from 1990-1992, AEG Treasurer, Vice President, and President from 1993-1997, received the AEG Floyd T. Johnston Service Award in 2008, was elected a Fellow by GSA in 2011, and was made an Honorary Member of the SCGS in 2012. He is a member of AEG, GSA, AIPG, AAPG, EERI, IAEG, IAPG, AAAS, AGU, SSA, PDAC, and all local geological societies.

photo of Lisa Grant
Lisa Grant
Professor, Ludwig Program in Public Health
University of California, Irvine
Speaker Topic: Earthquakes and Public Health
photo of Jonathan  P. Stewart
Jonathan P. Stewart
Speaker topic: Earthquake resilience of California’s water distribution systems

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Jonathan P. Stewart is a Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering Department at UCLA, where he has been a faculty member since 1996. He previously served as department chair from 2012-2018. All of his degrees (BS, MS, PhD) are from UC Berkeley.

Stewart’s technical expertise is in geotechnical earthquake engineering and engineering seismology, with emphases on soil-structure interaction, ground motion characterization, performance of levees and other embankments, and ground failure. Several current areas of research focus include his leadership of the Next-Generation Liquefaction project, development of site amplification and ground motion models for NGA projects, development and application of non-ergodic site response analysis methods for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, and development of soil-structure interaction-based procedures for evaluating seismic earth pressures on earth retaining structures.

The work of his research group has impacted the US National Seismic Hazard Maps; the Global Earthquake Model; building code documents (NEHRP Provisions and ASCE-7); and guidelines documents for tall buildings (Tall Buildings Initiative project), existing structures (ASCE-41), soil-structure interaction (NIST, 2012), and landslide hazards (SCEC, 2002).

He is a former Chief Editor for the ASCE Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering and is currently Editor of Earthquake Spectra.

photo of Ramesh Singh, Ph.D.
Ramesh Singh, Ph.D.
Convener of the workshop
Chapman University