• Economic Forecast
Economic Forecast

Hosted by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research

» Chapman University Economic Forecast

For over 40 years, Chapman University's Economic Forecast projects economic trends based on a comprehensive database and an econometric model developed by Chapman faculty and students.

Two events are held annually to present the forecast: the Conference in December and the Update in June. 

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Doti headshot croppedDr. James L. Doti

President Emeritus and Professor of Economics 

James Doti earned his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, where he studied under Nobel Laureates Gary Becker, Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Dr. Doti came to Chapman as a faculty member in 1974. He founded the Anderson Center for Economic Research in 1978 and served as its inaugural director until 1985, when he became dean of the Argyros School of Business and Economics. Dr. Doti was appointed as president of Chapman University in 1991 and served for 25 years. In September 2016, he returned to the Chapman faculty.

Dr. Doti’s articles have appeared in academic journals as well as periodicals such as The Wall Street Journal and The Chronicle of Higher Education. His frequent op-eds appear in the Orange County Register, and he is a regular columnist for Orange County Business Journal. He is also the co-author of two econometrics texts and co-editor of a collection of readings in free enterprise that received the Templeton Honor Award for Scholarly Excellence.


Dr. DotiDr. Raymond Sfeir

Director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research

Dr. Raymond Sfeir is the Director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research and Professor of Economics at Chapman University. He served for eighteen years as Associate Provost and then as Vice Chancellor. Dr. Sfeir teaches microeconomics, statistics and forecasting. His research interests include operations research, capital asset pricing models and applied economics. Dr. Sfeir produces the California, Orange County and Inland Empire forecasts. He also conducts the quarterly survey of purchasing managers in California and is quoted frequently in the media. He is currently studying the performance of the manufacturing sector in California. 


Dr. DotiFadel Lawandy

Director of the Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance, Director of the Janes Financial Center, and Assistant Professor of Finance and Real Estate

Assistant Professor Fadel Lawandy currently serves as the Director of the C. Larry Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance and the Janes Financial Center at Chapman University, his alma mater. He earned both a B.S. in Business Administration -International Business and Finance from the George L. Argyros School of Business and Economics and later received an MBA from Norwich University.

His experience within the financial industry expands twenty-five years, and his articles, co-authored with Dr. Doti, have appeared in many periodicals. Prior to joining Chapman University, he held the position of Managing Director of Hunter Wise Financial Group, LLC. He is also co-founded Hunter Wise Capital Partners, LLC, a company dedicated to the creation and management of opportunity funds. Among his areas of interest, he specializes in investment banking, credit management, commercial/residential real estate and portfolio management, to name a few.


About the Chapman Economic Forecast and the A Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research

The Anderson Center for Economic Research was founded in 1978 with a mission to encourage faculty and students in the Argyros School of Business and Economics to engage in research of the highest quality and widely disseminate the results.

The Center’s inaugural Orange County Forecast, presented in December 1978, was the first economic forecast in the U.S. to be based on an urban econometric model. The Chapman Econometric Model grew out of a class project.  It was developed by Argyros School faculty and students working together with a focus on providing the most relevant information relating to past, present and future trends in the Orange County economy.

In March 1997, the Center was named the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research in gratitude for the generous support of the A. Gary Anderson Family Foundation. The Foundation’s endowment gift also created the A. Gary Anderson Chair in Economic Analysis, with center director Esmael Adibi as its inaugural holder. President Jim Doti stated at that time, “The gift is quite significant in that funds will be available in perpetuity to fund the center’s operation.  It means we will be able to not only expand the center’s research effort but make it possible for the center to remain in the forefront of urban and regional analysis.”   

For nearly 40 years, the Economic Forecast has afforded students in the Argyros School hands-on experience not only in using the econometric tools necessary to revise and update the Chapman Model but also in analyzing current economic trends.  The focus continues to be on providing information that businesses and organizations need to make more effective planning and investment decisions.

The Anderson Center’s research findings have been quoted in major media outlets across the nation. The Economic Forecast is recognized, in particular, for its statistical accuracy, as reflected in the following results:

- Between 2004 and 2016, Chapman’s real GDP forecasts were more accurate than the forecasts issued by all 22 agencies participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys.  Chapman also ranked #1 for its forecasts of four variables that significantly influence the overall U.S. economy:  real GDP, the unemployment rate, inflation (as measured by the GDP price deflator), and housing starts. 

- Over the most recent 10-year period from 2007 through 2016, Chapman stood at #2 in both the real GDP and four-variable forecast rankings. 

The Chapman Forecasts include economic variables in the following categories:

U.S. Forecast:

  • Real GDP
  • Employment
  • Monetary Aggregates
  • Price Indicators
  • Housing
  • Interest Rates

California, Orange County and Inland Empire Forecasts:

  • Payroll Employment
  • Personal Income
  • Taxable Sales
  • Housing
  • Construction Activity

The following directors have provided leadership to the Anderson Center for Economic Research:

James L. Doti, Ph.D. (Founding Director, 1978 – 1985)

Esmael Adibi, Ph.D. (1985 – 2016)

Raymond Sfeir, Ph.D. (2016 – present)  

Thank You to Our 2019 Economic Forecast Sponsors

Sponsors of the 2019 Economic Forecast

Contact Us

For more information about sponsoring the Economic Forecast, contact Rachael Samimi at
(714) 744-7958 or samimi@chapman.edu

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