• Economic Forecast
Economic Forecast

Hosted by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research

» Chapman University Economic Forecast

Sponsored by 

Bank of America logo

Save the date for the 42nd Economic Forecast on Tuesday, December 10, 2019. 

 

+ - Event Details

Date

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Time

2 p.m. – Reception
3 p.m. – Conference

Location

Renée and Henry Segerstrom Concert Hall
600 Town Center Drive
Costa Mesa, CA 92626

Express Admission 

If you have a ticket, there is no need to stop at the conference registration. You may proceed directly to the doors.

Parking

Complimentary parking is available in the Park Center Garage, Center Tower Garage and Plaza Tower Garage. 

 

+ - Presenters

Dr. DotiDr. James L. Doti

President Emeritus and Professor of Economics 

James Doti earned his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, where he studied under Nobel Laureates Gary Becker, Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Dr. Doti came to Chapman as a faculty member in 1974. He founded the Anderson Center for Economic Research in 1978 and served as its inaugural director until 1985, when he became dean of the Argyros School of Business and Economics. Dr. Doti was appointed as president of Chapman University in 1991 and served for 25 years. In September 2016, he returned to the Chapman faculty.

Dr. Doti’s articles have appeared in academic journals as well as periodicals such as The Wall Street Journal and The Chronicle of Higher Education. His frequent op-eds appear in the Orange County Register, and he is a regular columnist for Orange County Business Journal. He is also the co-author of two econometrics texts and co-editor of a collection of readings in free enterprise that received the Templeton Honor Award for Scholarly Excellence.

 

Dr. DotiDr. Raymond Sfeir

Director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research

Dr. Raymond Sfeir is the Director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research and Professor of Economics at Chapman University. He served for eighteen years as Associate Provost and then as Vice Chancellor. Dr. Sfeir teaches microeconomics, statistics and forecasting. His research interests include operations research, capital asset pricing models and applied economics. Dr. Sfeir produces the California, Orange County and Inland Empire forecasts. He also conducts the quarterly survey of purchasing managers in California and is quoted frequently in the media. He is currently studying the performance of the manufacturing sector in California. 

+ - Research

About the Chapman Economic Forecast and the A Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research

The Anderson Center for Economic Research was founded in 1978 with a mission to encourage faculty and students in the Argyros School of Business and Economics to engage in research of the highest quality and widely disseminate the results.

The Center’s inaugural Orange County Forecast, presented in December 1978, was the first economic forecast in the U.S. to be based on an urban econometric model. The Chapman Econometric Model grew out of a class project.  It was developed by Argyros School faculty and students working together with a focus on providing the most relevant information relating to past, present and future trends in the Orange County economy.

In March 1997, the Center was named the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research in gratitude for the generous support of the A. Gary Anderson Family Foundation. The Foundation’s endowment gift also created the A. Gary Anderson Chair in Economic Analysis, with center director Esmael Adibi as its inaugural holder. President Jim Doti stated at that time, “The gift is quite significant in that funds will be available in perpetuity to fund the center’s operation.  It means we will be able to not only expand the center’s research effort but make it possible for the center to remain in the forefront of urban and regional analysis.”   

For nearly 40 years, the Economic Forecast has afforded students in the Argyros School hands-on experience not only in using the econometric tools necessary to revise and update the Chapman Model but also in analyzing current economic trends.  The focus continues to be on providing information that businesses and organizations need to make more effective planning and investment decisions.

The Anderson Center’s research findings have been quoted in major media outlets across the nation. The Economic Forecast is recognized, in particular, for its statistical accuracy, as reflected in the following results:

- Between 2004 and 2016, Chapman’s real GDP forecasts were more accurate than the forecasts issued by all 22 agencies participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys.  Chapman also ranked #1 for its forecasts of four variables that significantly influence the overall U.S. economy:  real GDP, the unemployment rate, inflation (as measured by the GDP price deflator), and housing starts. 

- Over the most recent 10-year period from 2007 through 2016, Chapman stood at #2 in both the real GDP and four-variable forecast rankings. 

The Chapman Forecasts include economic variables in the following categories:

U.S. Forecast:

  • Real GDP
  • Employment
  • Monetary Aggregates
  • Price Indicators
  • Housing
  • Interest Rates

California, Orange County and Inland Empire Forecasts:

  • Payroll Employment
  • Personal Income
  • Taxable Sales
  • Housing
  • Construction Activity

The following directors have provided leadership to the Anderson Center for Economic Research:

James L. Doti, Ph.D. (Founding Director, 1978 – 1985)

Esmael Adibi, Ph.D. (1985 – 2016)

Raymond Sfeir, Ph.D. (2016 – present)  

Thank You to Our 2019 Economic Forecast Update Sponsors

 Sponsors of the 2019 Economic Forecast Update: Mechanics Bank, Argryros Family Foundation, Marybelle and Sebastian P. Musco, Wells Fargo, C&L Refrigeration, SchoolsFirst Federal Credit Union, First American, Yassai Properties, Automobile Club of Southern California, California Scottish Rite Foundation, Capital One, CommerceWest Bank, Shulman, Hodges & Bastian LLP, Whittier Trust, Orange County Business Journal, Los Angeles Times Daily Pilot

Date:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
2 p.m. – Reception 
3 p.m. – Conference

Location: 
Renée and Henry Segerstrom Concert Hall
600 Town Center Drive
Costa Mesa, CA 92626

 

Contact Us

For more information about sponsoring the Economic Forecast, contact Tami R. Thompson at
(714) 744-7031 or tthompso@chapman.edu

Order the Economic Forecast Review

Please use the order form below to purchase copies of the Economic Forecast Review.

Economic Forecast Review Order Form