About the Chapman Economic Forecast and the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research
The Center for Economic Research was founded in 1978 with a mission to encourage faculty and students in the Argyros School of Business and Economics to engage in research of the highest quality and widely disseminate the results.
The Center’s inaugural Orange County Forecast, presented in December 1978, was the first economic forecast in the U.S. to be based on an urban econometric model. The Chapman Econometric Model grew out of a class project. It was developed by Argyros School faculty and students working together with a focus on providing the most relevant information relating to past, present and future trends in the Orange County economy.
In March 1997, the Center was named the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research in gratitude for the generous support of the A. Gary Anderson Family Foundation. The Foundation’s endowment gift also created the A. Gary Anderson Chair in Economic Analysis, with center director Esmael Adibi as its inaugural holder. President Jim Doti stated at that time, “The gift is quite significant in that funds will be available in perpetuity to fund the center’s operation. It means we will be able to not only expand the center’s research effort but make it possible for the center to remain in the forefront of urban and regional analysis.”
For nearly 40 years, the Economic Forecast has afforded students in the Argyros School hands-on experience not only in using the econometric tools necessary to revise and update the Chapman Model but also in analyzing current economic trends. The focus continues to be on providing information that businesses and organizations need to make more effective planning and investment decisions.
The Anderson Center’s research findings have been quoted in major media outlets across the nation. The Economic Forecast is recognized, in particular, for its statistical accuracy, as reflected in the following results:
- Between 2004 and 2016, Chapman’s real GDP forecasts were more accurate than the forecasts issued by all 22 agencies participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys. Chapman also ranked #1 for its forecasts of four variables that significantly influence the overall U.S. economy: real GDP, the unemployment rate, inflation (as measured by the GDP price deflator), and housing starts.
- Over the most recent 10-year period from 2007 through 2016, Chapman stood at #2 in both the real GDP and four-variable forecast rankings.
The Chapman Forecasts include economic variables in the following categories:
- Real GDP
- Monetary Aggregates
- Price Indicators
- Interest Rates
California, Orange County and Inland Empire Forecasts:
- Payroll Employment
- Personal Income
- Taxable Sales
- Construction Activity
The following directors have provided leadership to the Anderson Center for Economic Research:
James L. Doti, Ph.D. (Founding Director, 1978 – 1985)
Esmael Adibi, Ph.D. (1985 – 2016)
Raymond Sfeir, Ph.D. (2016 – present)